Assistant professor at UVA
Uncertainty about power and resolve has dominated the literature on information problems in crisis bargaining. Using a game-free approach, I study the neglected case of uncertainty about a common value of the contested object, or stakes. Whether always-peaceful equilibria exist depends on whether states bargain over shares or transfers: allocating shares can facilitate always-peace, but war occurs with positive probability in every equilibrium of any crisis bargaining game that requires trading the object for transfers, such as side payments or concessions on other issues. I also consider the general case where states may bargain over both shares and transfers. Under mild conditions, there is no crisis bargaining game in which transfers can remedy a bargaining failure caused by an indivisibility. Correlated information can exacerbate the problem by amplifying demands when stakes are thought to be high.